(This post may contain disputed claims. We make no assertions as to the validity of the information presented by our Opinion Columnist. We are an opinion blog, not a traditional news outlet, and this post should be treated as such. Enjoy.)It’s the best-kept secret the Democrats don’t want Americans to see. According to three separate projection models, President Donald Trump will get re-elected, and even the New York Times had to admit it’s looking rather dim for the Democrats. Nancy Pelosi and her cohorts are freaking out. You’ll love this.
If Trump supporters know anything by now, it’s not to trust the polls. Going into the 2016 election, every major poll except one got it all wrong. On Election Day 2016, the New York Times had Clinton at 85% and Trump at 15%. Within a few hours, the polls would close and prove just how badly most of the pollsters got it all wrong.
The one outlier in 2016 was the USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll which predicted a Trump victory. However, they used different modeling which was based on enthusiasm, and the leftists excoriated them at the time for predicting a Trump win. Now, we have these three separate projection models which are freaking out the Democrats.
What you need to know is projection models aren’t polls.
The three separate projection models we are talking about are based on historical evidence like past elections and the economy. This is much more reliable than polls which we know get skewed based on who is administering the poll.
Steve Rattner, who served as Barack Obama’s administration, shocked the Democrats by publishing the data of these projection models in the New York Times. His piece, titled “Trump’s Formidable 2020 Tailwind—The economy and incumbency drive presidential election outcomes,” is the Democrats worst nightmare and is exactly what they don’t want Americans to see.
“In his piece, Rattner, who served as a counselor under Obama’s former Treasury Secretary Tim Geitner, focused on three reports on prediction models from accredited economists who all found Trump will most likely retain his presidency next fall,” the Daily Mail reports. “These same models foresaw Barack Obama’s historic White House win in 2008, his re-election in 2012, and Trump’s unexpected victory in 2016.”
Moody’s economist and Trump critic Mark Zandi has analyzed 12 prediction models for 2020 that evaluate economic trends at the state level and add political factors such as a president’s approval rating.
“If the election were held today, Trump would win according to the models and pretty handily,” Zandi told Politico in March. “In three or four of them, it would be pretty close. He’s got low gas prices, low unemployment and a lot of other political variables at his back. The only exception is his popularity, which matters a lot. If that falls off a cliff it would make a big difference.”
Donald Luskin of Trend Macrolytics examined the likely Electoral College outcomes and reached the same conclusion as Zandi.
Rattner also noted that some of the models that predicted Trump would win in 2016 overestimated his margin of victory by an uncharacteristically high margin, which he credits to Trump’s polarizing persona.
“Computer Models that accurately predicted the last 4 POTUS elections (including, of course, Trump in 2016) indicate Trump will win again in 2020… The economy and incumbency drive and decide presidential election outcomes…whether you like it or not,” tweeted Archie Jordan. But that’s not all.
Computer Models that accurately predicted the last 4 POTUS elections (including, of course, Trump in 2016) indicate Trump will win again in 2020…
The economy and incumbency drive and decide presidential election outcomes…whether you like it or not.https://t.co/wBohHVfdx2
— Archie Jordan (@ajjordan_62) May 28, 2019
Behind the scenes, the Democrats are freaking out. Nancy Pelosi may be stammering and stuttering, but she has been around long enough to see the writing on the wall. The Speaker admitted a few days ago impeachment wouldn’t work. And she is really worried that her party has moved too far to the left to win in 2020.
Nancy’s “coldblooded” plan for decisively ridding themselves of Mr. Trump: Do not get dragged into a protracted impeachment bid that will ultimately get crushed in the Republican-controlled Senate, and do not risk alienating the moderate voters who flocked to the party in 2018 by drifting too far to the left, the New York Times reported.
“Own the center-left, own the mainstream,” Pelosi, 79, said. “Our passions were for health care, bigger paychecks, cleaner government — a simple message. We did not engage in some of the other exuberances that exist in our party” — a reference to some of the kooky plans like “Medicare for all” and the Green New Deal, which she has declined to support.
The other de facto Democratic leaders, Bill and Hillary Clinton, were also freaking out about a Trump win in 2020. However, the Clintons claim that the problem is there are far too many Democratic candidates, and of course, Trump’s great nicknames for his enemies, which is a genius PR move.
If the Democratic candidates “just want to slime people, we’ll never be as good at it as they are,” Bill said, referring to Republicans. “Especially the current chief executive—he’s good at that.”
Old timers like Nancy Pelosi and the Clintons are extremely worried about 2020. They can’t say the Democrats are going to do better on the economy, which is the biggest factor by far driving votes. It’s looking really good for President Trump in 2020. However, we shouldn’t get over-confident.
Let’s share this information with a caution to all our family and friends: It’s not over until it’s over, and anything can happen. The Democrats aren’t just going to roll over. This is will be a battle to the very end.
